Have we reached a new market high that cannot persist? By focusing on history, we can see that 37 out of 37 times the market has recovered.
Will I Have Enough
Many investors in retirement have certain goals in common: more money rather than less, minimal wealth volatility, and enough financial cushion to cover the extra costs of, hopefully, living a very long life.
Retirees have generally tried to meet those goals with a simple rule of thumb: hold a balanced stock/bond portfolio and withdraw at a sustainable rate. Historically this worked in large part because risk-free rates averaged 5.9% the last 65 years. Risk-free rates form the foundation of expected total return to every risky asset, i.e.:
Expected total return = risk-free rate + expected risk premium
So, total returns to stocks and bonds were sufficiently high to meet investor needs. After all, if you followed the rule of thumb, withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in retirement when risk-free rates were 5%+, you didn’t need to worry much about running out of money, and you probably ended up having plenty to pass on to your heirs. It was all pretty easy.
Unfortunately, the days of adequate and reliable expected total returns on a traditional stock/bond balanced portfolio could look different. Risk-free rates are near zero or negative in all developed markets, and global yield curves appear to forecast persistently low or negative rates for some time to come. Low or negative risk-free rates can pull down the expected total returns on all investments, stocks and bonds alike.
What about volatility? Volatility is driven by the non-risk-free portion of returns, so it doesn’t decline just because expected total returns are lower. Given the potential new combination of lower expected total return and not lower volatility, simple math tells us that the probability of a low or negative cumulative return over any future period may now be (much) higher in some asset classes. Recent research calls this “The New Arithmetic of Financial Planning” and it represents a direct challenge to traditional retirement analysis.
So risk-free rates have collapsed vs. historical averages, but what about risk premiums? Risk premiums are unknowable in advance, of course, but what’s not unknowable is just how tenuous realized risk premiums on traditional asset classes can be. For example, in Japan, the equity risk premium has been negative for the last three decades and counting. In the U.S., stocks have experienced a worst-case drawdown of 865. And while investors don’t need to be reminded of the 55% drop in their equity portfolios ten years ago, what some may find surprising is that in just the last 12 months, the average small stock in the U.S. is down 9%, and the average international stock is down 1%. Investors are not entitled to the equity risk premium – certainly over shorter periods (10-20 years) and even over periods that many investors typically consider very long term (30 years+).
As we look ahead to the future, it is also interesting to note several of the following which may impact one’s financial planning assumptions going forward:
Historically, the equity risk premium has been reliant on the outsized performance of a small number of companies.
Over the last 93 years, 4% of stocks have driven 100% of U.S. stock market wealth creation. The other 96% are a push.
About 25 stocks (out of about 26,000 ever to exist) have driven 30% of all stock market wealth creation.
Some may ask, where is the next Microsoft and Amazon? Here are a few more thoughts to keep in mind for planning purposes:
Something perhaps not well known to most investors is that companies are staying private longer.
Sarbines-Oxley may be forcing some of this reaction by company executives.
The significant growth in available private market capital is also a reason since an IPO may not be needed.
How can investors capture the hyper-performance in their early few post-IPO years?
Microsoft and Amazon went public with much lower valuations than companies today such as Uber, Peloton and Lyft just to name a few.
While there is a significant amount of data and evidence on this topic, most agree that future expected returns could be lower going forward in some areas of the market. To be clear, lower does not mean negative nor does it imply a forecast for a recession or a stock market crash. However, it may mean that one’s current financial planning or longevity planning assumptions are affected. What this evidence does make pretty clear is the case for smart diversification, risk management, and holistic financial planning.
As always we are here to help.
Best,
Marc
Source: U.S. Treasury 10-year constant maturity rates; Morningstar; Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; Stone Ridge Asset Management; Oliver Wyman: Longevity Risk Premium October 2019; Bessembinder, Hendrik, et al., “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?” Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming; M & A Consulting Group, LLC, doing business as CAM Investor Solutions is an SEC-registered investment adviser. As a fee-only firm, we do not receive commissions nor sell any insurance products. We provide financial planning and investment information that we believe to be useful and accurate. However, there cannot be any guarantees. This blog has been provided solely for informational purposes and does not represent investment advice or provide an opinion regarding the fairness of any transaction. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any stated performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. There are many different interpretations of investment statistics and many different ideas about how to best use them. Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. Tax planning and investment illustrations are provided for educational purposes and should not be considered tax advice or recommendations. Investors should seek additional advice from their financial advisor or tax professional.
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