What History Tells Us About US Presidential Elections and the Market It’s natural for investors to look for a connection between who wins the White House and which way stocks will go. But as nearly a century of returns shows, stocks have trended upward across administrations from both parties.
Many investors in retirement have certain goals in common: more money rather than less, minimal wealth volatility, and enough financial cushion to cover the extra costs of, hopefully, living a very long life.
Source: JLL Exchange. There can be no guarantee that a 1031 exchange will be successful in deferring tax obligations as future tax code changes could impact that ability. In addition, there are strict guidelines around timelines, replacement property identification and the use of a qualified intermediary to process funds. Individual investors should consult with their own tax professionals.
Source: Callan Institute; The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns conveys the strong case for diversification across asset classes (stocks vs. bonds), capitalizations (large vs. small), and equity markets (U.S. vs. global ex-U.S.). The Table highlights the uncertainty inherent in all capital markets. Rankings change every year. Also noteworthy is the difference between absolute and relative performance, as returns for the top-performing asset class span a wide range over the past 20 years.
Source: Aon, Blackrock, Callan, Cliffwater, JPMorgan, Marquette, Meketa, NEPC, RVK, Segal, Verus, and Wilshire. Data forecasts are as of January 2024.
Note: For illustrative purposes only.
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Source: BLS, FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core CPI inflation for that month. For the current month, we use the prior month’s score CPI figures until the latest data is available.
Data as of June 30, 2024.
In US dollars. Source: S&P and Dow Jones data © 2022 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. MSCI data © 2022, all rights reserved. ICE BofA index data © 2022 ICE Data Indices, LLC. Bloomberg data provided by Bloomberg. FTSE fixed income indices © 2022 FTSE Fixed Income LLC. All rights reserved. See “Index Descriptions” in the appendix for descriptions of Dimensional’s index data. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
