What History Tells Us About US Presidential Elections and the Market It’s natural for investors to look for a connection between who wins the White House and which way stocks will go. But as nearly a century of returns shows, stocks have trended upward across administrations from both parties.
It seems investor sentiment has quickly changed since the beginning of the year, not to mention from just about 10 days ago as witnessed by the recent stock market decline. Many argue "why" this has happened and here's a quick look at the potential reasons:
Source: JLL Exchange. There can be no guarantee that a 1031 exchange will be successful in deferring tax obligations as future tax code changes could impact that ability. In addition, there are strict guidelines around timelines, replacement property identification and the use of a qualified intermediary to process funds. Individual investors should consult with their own tax professionals.
Source: Callan Institute; The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns conveys the strong case for diversification across asset classes (stocks vs. bonds), capitalizations (large vs. small), and equity markets (U.S. vs. global ex-U.S.). The Table highlights the uncertainty inherent in all capital markets. Rankings change every year. Also noteworthy is the difference between absolute and relative performance, as returns for the top-performing asset class span a wide range over the past 20 years.
Note: For illustrative purposes only.
Source: Aon, Blackrock, Callan, Cliffwater, JPMorgan, Marquette, Meketa, NEPC, RVK, Segal, Verus, and Wilshire. Data forecasts are as of January 2024.
Source: BLS, FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core CPI inflation for that month. For the current month, we use the prior month’s score CPI figures until the latest data is available.
Data as of June 30, 2024.
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In US dollars. Source: S&P and Dow Jones data © 2022 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. MSCI data © 2022, all rights reserved. ICE BofA index data © 2022 ICE Data Indices, LLC. Bloomberg data provided by Bloomberg. FTSE fixed income indices © 2022 FTSE Fixed Income LLC. All rights reserved. See “Index Descriptions” in the appendix for descriptions of Dimensional’s index data. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
